Before you stock up for the holidays

Adobe forecasts US online sales of $275.1B for Nov 1 to Dec 31, up 6.7% year over year. Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) is forecast at $47.5B, Cyber Monday at $15.1B, and Black Friday at $12.9B. Mobile is expected to be 57.4% of full-season spend.

Every forecast counts differently

• NRF: core retail for Nov to Dec at $1.013T, up 4.2% vs 2025. Excludes autos, gas, and restaurants.
• Deloitte: e-commerce for Nov 2026 to Jan 2027 at $316.1B to $318.9B, up 7.5% to 8.4% year over year.

Different periods, different scope. Don't compare them directly.

A bigger season doesn't mean your product sells

Netstock reports that the share of SMBs with more than 10% of inventory as dead stock has doubled since 2024. That's global data, not holiday-specific, but the point holds: market growth doesn't move your inventory for you.

Check your product, not just the market

• Search interest: use Google Trends set to the US. Scores are relative (0–100), not search counts.
• Competition: how many similar listings, and at what prices.
• Real sales: Amazon Best Sellers Rank reflects recent and all-time sales, with recent sales weighted more. eBay completed listings show what items like yours have sold for.

Before you stock up

• Search interest checked in the US
• Similar listings and prices compared
• Sales evidence found for your product
• Order sized to your demand, not the market's

Signals first. Stock second.